On Friday 13 September, in partnership with the Ascoma Group, the Monaco Economic Board hosted Jean-Pierre Petit, President of the Cahiers Verts de l'Économie, for a conference on the theme of 2020 risks. A fascinating decryption for more than 150 entrepreneurs.
According to Jean-Pierre Petit, we will face a complex and multifaceted configuration of risks during this decade, and probably during the next. The current economic risk is only the consequence of other risks that economists call "exogenous":
- Political risk with the rise of populism, geo-political threats, ...
- Climate risk: the number of natural disasters has increased in recent years and will increase further. The economic implications are important: agricultural profitability can be undermined, tourism will evolve, the economy of insurance and health will change, not to mention the cost of new regulatory measures.
- Migration risk, itself driven by climate risk.
- Demographic risk: life expectancy in good health has never been higher ... pension reform is essential.
- Technological / digital risk: it leads to the massive and rapid suppression of intermediate jobs and therefore social risks. This "revolution" is fast ...
- Finally, there is a Global Economic Risk: inflation is at the lowest post-war rate, but debt is at a world record in peacetime. Growth is falling ... and the solution found is that of the fall in nominal interest rates, which will soon be negative.
It should be noted that uncertainty indicators have increased mainly because of trade tensions, especially between China and the US. But in the United States, corporate debt is increasing. Donald Trump knows that no American President has been re-elected during a recession ... He will probably find an agreement with China not to jeopardize his chances.
In conclusion, a shifting world, various risks, that we can foresee and reduce if we evaluate them at their true value.
"Experience is never wrong, it is our judgments that are wrong. " (Leonardo DeVinci)